Environmental Series Part II

Climate change

The consequences of climate change in Palestine are can be predicted based on a combination of both biophysical and sociopolitical vulnerabilities, and the area most susceptible is undoubtedly water resources. In terms of biophysical vulnerability, the impact of climate change on water resources is expected to result in a significant decrease of annual precipitation and temperature rise. Estimates of existing climate models predict that the mean sea level for the Mediterranean Sea will rise by 35cm by 2100, posing a serious threat to Gaza. In terms of sociopolitical vulnerabilities, the political situation in Palestine has resulted in several problems in regards to water, such as unequal distribution amongst inhabitants of the West Bank (with Israeli settlers diverting most of the water), restricted access to wells and building permits, and an overall water shortage. This, in addition to rapid demographic expansion and general restrictions on development from Israel, indicates that freshwater resources in Palestine in both the West Bank and Gaza are predicted to become even scarcer than they presently are.

The combination of the already existing human-induced water scarcity and a decrease in annual precipitation is expected to have devastating effects in the Occupied Territories, particularly because the situation now is already dire. The impact of this will be multiplied by a coinciding rise in temperature. Climate change forecasts for the eastern Mediterranean from high-resolution regional climate models give clear scientific evidence to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections for the region. In its Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC predicts that, for the southern and eastern Mediterranean, warming over the 21st century will be larger than global annual mean warming – between 2.2-5.1ºC according to an optimistic emissions scenario. Annual precipitation rates are deemed likely to fall in the eastern Mediterranean, decreasing 10% by 2020 and 20% by 2050, with an increased risk of summer drought. Given that they are inextricably tied to all other aspects of the Occupied Territories, the two elements of Palestinian society that are likely to be most affected by the impact of climate change are the agricultural and public health sectors.

These changes will have the most extreme impact on the agricultural sector of Palestine, which is an essential aspect of the country because of the livelihood opportunities it provides as well as food production for the local population. Increases in seasonal temperature variability, storminess and frequency of temperature extremes may endanger cold- and heat-sensitive crops. Greater rain intensities and resulting floods could potentially damage crops. Additional damage resulting from droughts is also expected to increase with the anticipated decrease in water availability, hotter temperatures and shorter winters. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture, more pests and pathogens will not only increase crop diseases but also their sensitivity to drought and loss of biodiversity may reduce the natural control of agricultural pests. Furthermore, a delayed growing season will cause Palestine to lose its advantage over countries in colder climates in early exports of flowers, fruits and vegetables.

Palestinian farmers both in the West Bank and Gaza will face challenges resulting from climate change, particularly the task of mitigating the anticipated decrease in water availability. Agricultural livelihoods, particularly within rural rain-fed farming communities, are always directly affected by rainfall and drought incidence. The farmers in Palestine, however, experience unique difficulties when it comes to obtaining water because of the current political restrictions imposed upon then by the occupation. Israel has installed problematic restrictions on movement and access to land, resources, and markets; this is exacerbated by a weak institutional framework and has resulted in an increase in farming production costs (including water supply) along with decreasing profits. Moreover, the construction of the separation barrier, the expanding presence of settlements and settler bypass roads, combined with the aforementioned imposition of restrictions on movement and access have endangered the watering and seasonal migration of herds. This has ultimately reduced grazing land and forced herders to purchase water from more distant filling points, which inevitably leads to higher transportation costs. Subsequently, the government and population has been forced to take into consideration alternative sources of food availability elsewhere in the world to compensate for domestic agricultural inefficiency.

In addition to the agricultural sector, public health will also be adversely affected by the predicted shortage of water availability due to the consequences of climate change. The lack of water is likely to result in an increase of health issues such as diarrhea, cholera, and dehydration. The risk of parasitic disease is also expected to increase with climate change because increased annual and seasonal variability, elevated mean temperature, and extreme weather events are all conducive to the spreading of existing vectors and establishment of new invasive ones. The longer and significantly hotter summers resulting from the delay of winter rains are likely to exacerbate the problem of cold-sensitive insects or other organisms that transmit pathogenic funguses, viruses, and bacteria causing of human diseases, such as Leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases, and many others, which proliferate in summer.

Although public health and agricultural production in Palestine face the most serious problems, the repercussions of climate change are by no means limited to these sectors. Another alarming effect of global warming caused by climate change is the expected rise in sea level. This poses as a threat to Gaza to the extent that immediate attention to coastal management is crucial in order to regulate the effects of climate change as well as human activities. Coastal problems caused by humans include significant damage to offshore currents, sea bed fluctuations, seawater quality, as well as coastal erosion as the sand in coastal areas is mined in quarries for use in construction. All of these activities exacerbate the dilemma of the rising sea levels. This is already affecting the Palestinian fishing industry which is already witnessing shifts from rocky to muddy or sandy habitats.

In Palestine, energy consumption is increasing rapidly, reflecting the level of development and growth in population. The Palestinian Energy Authority (PEA) has not yet engaged in any climate change adaptation planning, so there are no policy statements on the potential energy impacts of climate change (for example, demands from increased water pumping needs). The Palestinians depend primarily on non-renewable sources of energy and imported rather than produced in the Palestinian territories. Electricity and fuel is almost completely imported from Israel. The main source of energy in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank is electricity, with a demand of about 600 MW of the electrical power for the coming 10 years. In many cases, underground storage tanks of fuel are not monitored or checked for leakage, posing a risk of contaminating soil and groundwater, as well as direct human health risks. To address this, the Palestinian Energy Authority has expressed strong interest in climate change mitigation and clean energy, notably the anticipated role for increased renewable sources and greater energy efficiency in an independent Palestinian energy system.

The situation in the West Bank and Gaza is already dire, especially in regards to the water shortage. The population is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of unusual weather patterns, such as exceptionally hot weather and less frequent rain. Clearly every aspect of Palestinian society will unavoidably be negatively affected by climate change, resulting in a general decrease in the resilience of livelihoods, so it is imperative for government and nongovernment organizations as well as individuals to take a proactive approach in order to derail some of the impending effects. This includes the organization of cohesive environmental information, and many other undertakings which are only possible with improved capacity building. Without such systematic analyses there will remain significant uncertainties regarding future climate change impacts.

There are major structural challenges internally facing the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) institutions that are necessary for effective climate adaptation policy-making. This can be attributed to political differences as well as resource and managerial weaknesses. Adaptive capacity at the national level in Palestine is directly compromised by the movement restrictions imposed by outside forces as well as insecure, insufficient water and land resources. As long as the regional political atmosphere remains stagnant, the Palestinians will continue to encounter difficulties when it comes to improving their living situation and preserving the land which is under their care. Climate change is a global crisis which transcends all geographical and political boundaries; the recognition of this is essential in order to effectively tackle the problem.


Sources:

"Climate Change, Water and the Policy Making Process in the Levant and North Africa"
Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptations and Policy‐Making Process: Palestine as a Case Study
http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/public_policy/climate_change/ifi_cc_texts/Documents/commissioned_papers/20090814cc_policy_levant_workshop/Palestine_country_study_Mimi.pdf
The Research and Policy Forum on Climate Change and Environment in the Arab World at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, AUBAugust 4, 2009

Palestinian Integrated Rural Environmental Protection Plan: Volume I Current Status and Analysis

Mason, M., Mimi, Z. and Mark Zeitoun, M. (2009) Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
and Program of Action for the Palestinian National Authority: Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The program was initiated by
Environmental Quality Authority (EQA) and financed by UNDP/PAPP.

Ministry of Agriculture, 2008. Rainfall Seasonal Report 2007/2008, Palestine.